Israel is set to retaliate against Iran for the October 1 missile attack, some of which penetrated into Israeli’s air defences. But the question arises how will Israel respond to the bombardment and what could be the repercussions for the archenemies?
Among the targets were the headquarters of Israeli intelligence agency Mossad in Tel Aviv and Nevatim and Tel Nof air bases.
Iran, which became an Islamic Republic after overthrowing the Shah in 1979, has long vowed to destroy Israel and the Zionist regime. It said it launched some 180 ballistic missiles against Israel in response to the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
What are the Options Before Israel?
Israel can target Iran’s government buildings and military bases to oil refineries and fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground. But striking anywhere in Iran is a logistical challenge for Israel. Warplanes would need to fly over 1,500 km to their target, requiring a complicated midair refueling operation, potentially over hostile skies. Any strike would also mean confronting Iran’s Russian-made air-defense systems.
Also, Iran’s flagging economy, its ageing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, head of Quds Force dead, and a weak Hezbollah present an opportunity for Israeli leaders to more seriously degrade Iranian capabilities.
Scenario 1: The most cited target is Kharg oil terminal, which handles around 90% of Iranian crude oil exports, most of which are destined for China. Other key facilities include the Abadan refinery, near the border with Iraq, which handles a significant proportion of Iran’s domestic oil needs.
Israel also has to consider diplomatic relations if it plans to target Iran’s oil sector as it would mean a response from Iran, which would raise the risk of escalation. Such strikes could also rattle global oil markets and shake the US economy, which will witness presidential elections in November. They also could risk Iranian retaliation not only against Israel, but against American troops stationed in the region or Gulf Arab countries aligned with the West.
Former prime minister, Yair Lapid believes Israel should strike Iran’s oil industry infrastructure. “That is the most painful target for the Iranian regime,” Lapid, who served as premier in 2022, said in a written response to a question from The Associated Press.
Thus, striking on Iran’s petrochemical plants, its power generation plants and shipping could be a deeply unpopular move on Israel’s part, which would end up hurting ordinary people’s lives.
Scenario 2: Strike on multiple military targets, spread across Iran’s vast territory, would be more than enough to send a message. The goal is to show that Israel can strike anywhere and anytime. However, former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett said, as quoted by The Associated Press, “We must not settle for Iranian military bases or noisy-yet-meaningless actions that are meant only to deliver a message,” Bennett said. “The time for messages is over.”
Alternatives could also be targeting Iran’s air defence bases, on a larger scale, which cover Tehran, Isfahan and ports on the Persian Gulf. Or a more complex attack could target military-industrial production, such as a more overt repeat of the drone attack on a weapons factory in Isfahan in January 2023, as per The Guardian.
Scenario 3: There is speculation that Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear sites which can put Iran’s plans to develop a nuclear bomb back by years. However, in interviews with The New York Times, former and current senior Israeli officials acknowledged doubts about whether the country has the capability to do significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
A paper by Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, originally published in April by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, says: “The only conventional weapon that could plausibly achieve this is the American GBU-57A/B massive ordnance penetrator, which – with over 12 tonnes and 6 metres long – can only be carried by large US bombers like the B-2 Spirit.”
Nonetheless, for the past few days, Pentagon officials have been wondering whether the Israelis are preparing to go it alone, after concluding that they may never again have a moment like this one, NYT reported. At least initially, Israel seems unlikely to go after the country’s nuclear crown sites. After considerable debate, those targets seem to have been reserved for later, if the Iranians escalate with counterstrikes of their own.
Sites on Israel’s possible target list include Parchin, the epicentre of Iran’s military nuclear programme, research reactors at Tehran, Bonab and Ramsar, as well as major facilities at Bushehr, Natanz, Isfahan and Ferdow.
With its defense industrial cooperation rapidly growing with China, Russia, and North Korea, Iran also could join them as a destabilizing nuclear weapons quartet with global ramifications, as per the Atlantic Council.
Scenario 4: Israel also plans assassinations to decapitate the theocratic regime led by Khamenei. The veteran leader, along with his close associates, has reportedly moved to an undisclosed location fearing an attack on his life. Israel believes a change in regime in Iran is the need of the hour. Addressing Iranians directly through a video message last week, Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “When Iran is finally free — and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different… Don’t let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better”.
What Might Iran Do?
In April this year, Iran had launched a small attack by sending slow drones and a few missiles, in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its diplomatic mission in Syria that killed two Iranian generals and five other officers. At that time, Iran had given three days’ notice before launching the attack, perhaps to minimise casualties but maximise optics.
In response to that attack, Israel launched a limited strike on Iran a week later. The attack damaged some military infrastructure located at the central province of Isfahan.
Meanwhile, the Iranian leadership’s failure to directly come to the aid of Hezbollah makes it look weaker. Under these scenarios, Iran can do nothing and appear as a weak regime or take some action so that its proxies believe that it is a powerful regime. And Iran did the latter. Thus, it is now facing an uprising against it from within.
Israel’s Covert Operations Against Iran In the Past
In March 2024, details of a 2020 sabotage operation against an Iranian nuclear facility were revealed. According to the Eurasian Times, the Iran International revealed that an ‘industrial production workshop’ belonging to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) was deliberately set on fire in July 2020. AEOI is the main Iranian government agency that manages the country’s nuclear energy and fuel cycle facilities.
According to the Iran International report, the leaked documents indicate that the Islamic Republic attributes the sabotage operation to the Israeli service Mossad.
Documents suggest that Mossad hired a group of Iranians, providing them with a “blueprint of the Shadabad workshop” and promising payment in exchange of setting the workshop on fire, destroying property and filming the act.
Described as a ‘covert workshop’ in the Shadabad neighbourhood of Tehran, this site had not been disclosed to the IAEA. The Shadabad area is an older neighborhood located in District 18 of southwestern Tehran.