As the war in Gaza rages on, it continues to weigh heavily on many here in Australia.
This was evident in Canberra earlier this month when Labor senator Fatima Payman defected to the crossbench because of the government’s stance on Palestinian statehood.
Her actions sent ripples through the Labor Party and among political observers.
And the question remains whether these tensions could influence next year’s election result.
Muslims feeling disenfranchised
According to Josh Roose, a specialist in religion and politics at Deakin University, Muslim communities, in particular, are feeling disenfranchised.
“[They] are upset over what they see as inaction in Gaza, by the international community and by the national government,” he tells ABC RN’s Religion and Ethics Report.
Some constituents are taking matters into their own hands.
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This month, the newly formed political group Muslim Vote vowed to run in Western Sydney at the next elections.
The group’s convenor, Sheikh Wesam Charkawi, told the ABC that Labor’s position on Israel had outraged Muslim communities.
Dr Roose says this fits with global trends.
“We’re starting to see more and more [political] organisation by actively religious individuals and communities seeking to influence the election process,” he says.
“In the United States, for example, the evangelical voting bloc played a really important role in the [2016] election of Donald Trump, and they take an incredibly hardline approach on issues like abortion.”
Not a ‘monolithic Muslim voting bloc’
According to the latest Census, Muslims make up 3.2 per cent of Australia’s population, with more than 813,000 people.
However, Dr Roose points out that there’s not a “monolithic Muslim voting bloc”.
“We’ve got to really look at the sheer diversity of Australian Islam, coming from well over 100 countries, speaking many different languages,” he says.
Additionally, many Australians with Middle Eastern heritage don’t belong to Islam.
“For example, our Lebanese population, I think there are more [Christians] than there are Muslims, but that’s not necessarily known and reported in the wider media,” Dr Roose says.
Overseas, Muslim voters are having an impact. For example, in the recent UK elections, the Labour Party performed badly in areas with a high proportion of Muslim voters, while four pro-Gaza independent candidates won their traditionally safe Labour seats.
Could this happen in Australia?
Dr Roose says this kind of swing won’t necessarily be replicated here.
“These are incredibly well-established, often quite wealthy communities [in the UK] that have not only economic power behind them, but a deeper-seated cultural and political power from years and years of being involved in local government that we don’t have here,” he says.
Despite its landslide election win, the UK’s Labour Party suffered significant setbacks in areas with large Muslim populations. (Getty images: Alex McBride)
He believes there’s another key difference between the UK political landscape and our own — the Greens.
“In an Australian context, we have a major political party who, in many respects, [is] using this political turmoil — and the anger and resentment out there amongst some Muslim communities about this issue — to seek to exploit it to gain political ground themselves,” he says.
Dr Roose says while the Greens’ response to Gaza aligns with many Muslim and Arab Australian voters, there is a significant disconnect on other policies.
“There is certainly a paradox at play here, where there’s effectively an alliance of opportunity,” he says.
“We know that, in particular, conservative Muslims … [take] issue with Greens policies on the liberalisation of drug use, sex work, LGBTQIA+ rights and so on.
“But there are also core areas in which they agree, in particular, the elevation of Indigenous rights, stopping the [Gaza] war.”
He believes this “marriage of convenience” may provide short-term gain for the Greens, but he says such support will probably come from younger voters.
“The older generation … are more likely to be concerned with socio-economic issues, worried about putting food on the table,” he says.
The Greens party rejected the characterisation that its connection with the Muslim community is opportunistic.
Greens leader Adam Bandt and deputy Mehreen Faurqi have been vocal about the party’s stance on Gaza. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
Leader of the Australian Greens, Adam Bandt, told the ABC that he’s worked closely with the diverse Muslim communities in his electorate for over a decade.
The party also pointed out their deputy leader, Senator Mehreen Faruqi, is Muslim.
“[People] tell me they know the Greens will fight for them, and that we won’t say one thing to win votes then do the opposite when elected,” Mr Bandt said.
‘Abandoned’ by the mainstream parties
Leila-Marie Abdullah, 24, says the Greens aren’t a natural fit for many Arab Australians.
“When you look at religion overall, it’s a quite traditional thing,” she says. “And Arabs, as a culture, we are quite traditional.”
Until recently, Ms Abdullah was a member of the NSW Young Liberals.
“I’m a huge believer that people, especially young people, should be involved in politics,” she says.
“It’s democracy in action.”
She was drawn to the party’s values around individual rights and freedoms.
And, as a university student majoring in politics and international relations, she saw policymaking as an avenue to create positive, long-standing change.
So, after joining in 2020, Ms Abdullah campaigned for politicians in the Western Sydney branches, attended Young Liberals events, and even tried to bring more female and culturally diverse people into the group.
But since the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, her relationship with — and support for — the Liberals has completely altered.
Leila-Marie Abdullah, who is studying politics and international relations, joined the NSW Young Liberals in 2020, but has since left the group. (Supplied: Leila-Marie Abdullah)
Ms Abdullah wants to be absolutely clear that she condemns the actions of Hamas.
But she became deeply uncomfortable with a perceived lack of compassion by fellow Young Liberals for the lives of Palestinians, particularly those living in Gaza under attack from Israel.
“The Palestinians have had hundreds of [attacks like] October 7 happen to them, but I haven’t heard a single person condemn it, and that was very upsetting to me,” Ms Abdullah says.
“I felt like there was a very strong sense of, ‘They deserve it. The Arabs, the Palestinians, they deserve what’s happening to them’.”
Ms Abdullah, who has South African-Egyptian and Lebanese heritage, alleges that a member of the group told her they hope “Lebanon gets bombed”.
“I think this person was trying to get under my skin, but that’s a sort of environment I was in,” she recalls.
Meet the Australians taking to the streets, week after week
The NSW Young Liberals told the ABC it is a “vibrant and diverse youth movement”, and that there is space for members to hold personal values that aren’t in line with its stance on the war in Gaza.
“The Young Liberals cherish the right of members to dissent. Freedom of thought is at the heart of liberalism,” it said.
“Further, the Liberal Party has a proud history of allowing free votes on conscience issues.”
Coming from a Coptic Orthodox background, Ms Abdullah doesn’t believe the Israel-Gaza war should be framed as a “Muslim-Judaism fight”.
“The reality is so many Palestinian Christians are also affected,” she says.
“Christians in Bethlehem and Rafah, and other places, are facing the same issues as Muslim Palestinians.”
She says that Arab Australians of various faiths feel “abandoned” by the government and its inaction on Gaza.
“It leaves us thinking, ‘There is no party for us, everyone’s deserted us’.”
While she’s not Muslim, Ms Abdullah believes Muslim Vote will offer a positive contribution to the community.
But she doesn’t plan to hitch her vote to a particular political group.
“For me personally, I’m going to vote for whoever I think is best going to represent the community in every election from here on out,” she says.
Ms Abdullah is currently interning at the Embassy of the State of Palestine in Australia. (Supplied: Leila-Marie Abdullah)
Nurturing multiculturalism in Australia
The Muslim Vote collective has detractors. Lebanese-born community leader Jamal Rifi says he’s concerned that recent political turmoil — namely the creation of this group and Senator Payman quitting Labor — could tear at the fabric of multiculturalism in Australia.
“I worry about this, actually, in my waking time and in my sleeping time,” he says.
“We all come into this country, we flee war-torn countries; we’ve had a good life, we’re still living a very good life.
“The last thing that we want is to destabilise this situation, and to bring sectarianism, or religions politics into the fray.”
The retired GP says that multiculturalism requires effort.
“It needs to be nurtured, need to be supported, and we will do our best,” Dr Rifi says.
“We would like this — whatever is happening right now, in the so-called Muslim Vote — not to impact negatively on that.”
Community leader Dr Jamal Rifi says voters in Western Sydney are “very disappointed with Anthony Albanese” and his response to the war in Gaza. (ABC News: Shaun Kingma)
While Dr Rifi acknowledges that many Muslim and Arab Australians feel “resentment, frustration, rage and outrage” towards Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, he doesn’t believe this will — or should — affect the reputation of sitting Labor politicians in Western Sydney.
“[Ministers] Tony Burke and Jason Clare, the federal and local MPs … they have served us very well, they are embedded in the area,” he says.
“Anyone else, Muslim or non-Muslim, who is going to run against them, we’re not going to support them. Not just me, a big section of the community.
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“We don’t want them to replace cabinet ministers [and] senior ministers who worked with us with someone who is a newbie, who doesn’t yet know the rough and tumble of politics.”
A federal Labor party spokesperson told the ABC that “there is a place in our Party for people of all faiths, heritage and backgrounds”.
The spokesperson added that “Labor supports an enduring and just two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”.
While identity politics may indeed play a role in the next election, Dr Roose believes that, ultimately, another factor is likely to hold greater sway.
“There will be a highly committed, highly active and very vocal element of Christian communities, Muslim communities, other communities, seeking to mobilise people on the basis of religion,” he says.
“But in Australia, people by and large still vote based on their back pocket.”