The share of Hindu population in India has dipped 7.82 per cent while that of Muslims, Christians and Sikhs has seen a rise in the 65-year period between 1950 and 2015, a new analysis by Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (PM-EAC) has shown, suggesting a ‘conducive environment’ for increasing diversity.
The PM-EAC report titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A cross country analysis’ studied data on religious composition of populations for 167 countries. The dipping majority population and rising minority population in India was in line with global trends, also seen in Europe, but stood out in relation to India’s neighbours.
The analysis relied on the Religious Characteristics of States Dataset 2017 to track religious composition across countries.The study focussed only on countries that had a majority religion accounting for more than 50 per cent share of the total population in 1950.
While the population of Hindus declined 7.82 per cent, the share of Muslim population rose from 9.84 per cent to 14.09 per cent. The share of Christian population rose from 2.24 per cent to 2.36 per cent, the share of Sikh population increased from 1.24 per cent to 1.85 per cent and the share of the Buddhist population rose from 0.05 per cent to 0.81 per cent. The Jain and Parsi community population witnessed a dip. The share of Jains declined from 0.45 per cent to 0.36 per cent and the share of the Parsi population declined 85 per cent from 0.03 per cent to 0.0004 per cent.
The report put in a caveat that the analysis was agnostic to the causes behind demographic changes. However, it concluded that “the rise in share of minorities suggested the net result of policy actions, political decisions and societal processes provided a conducive environment for increasing diversity in society”. The study also went on to term as ‘noise’ news reports on atrocities against minorities in India and stated in contrast — “minorities were not just protected but also thrived in India”, particularly remarkable in the context of shrinking minority populations in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
Shamika Ravi, member of the PM-EAC and one of the report’s authors, said the Indian experience is similar to most of world’s high-income and liberal democracies, such as OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries which have seen a major decline in the share of majority religion. “The change in proportion of minorities as a share of the total population serves as a reliable proxy for the status of minorities in a country, which is fostered via policies including defining minorities, which itself is a rate practice globally,” she said when The Indian Express reached out to her.
Of 35 OECD countries studied, 25 were from Europe, and the share of majority religious denominations has decreased by 29 per cent in these countries.
Population Foundation of India, a non-profit that works on addressing population issues through research and advocacy, cautioned that the PM-EAC report should not be interpreted incorrectly to incite fear or discrimination against any community. Poonam Muttreja, the non-profit executive director, said the media should not portray the data selectively to only highlight increase in Muslim population, misrepresenting broader demographic trends. It said the total fertility rate (TFR) among all religious groups was declining and the highest decrease in TFR from 2005-06 to 2019-21 was observed among Muslims, a 1 percentage point drop in their TFR. Hindus saw a 0.7 percentage point drop.