The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ali Khamenei lives in a parallel world of his own, embracing peculiar perceptions of what is happening around him. However, it is unlikely that he personally believes the absurdities he says. His speeches are simply rhetoric aimed at stirring the emotions of regime supporters inside and outside Iran. This was evident in the sermon he delivered in Arabic from Tehran last Friday, directed at the Islamic world and especially at the Lebanese and Palestinian people. It was a revealing speech that reflected his mindset and those of the hardline Iranian elite surrounding him – a mindset that has fueled crises in the Middle East since 1979.
His claim that “Every strike against Israel serves the entire region” reflects the Islamic regime of Iran’s self-appointed role as overseer of the region’s countries, forcibly imposing its authoritarian vision, particularly regarding security and stability.
After years of promoting the idea that the military presence of the United States is the primary cause of regional turmoil, particularly in the Gulf, he now asserts that striking Israel serves the interests of regional countries – encouraging a series of proxy wars.
This reckless and shortsighted Iranian view, disregarding the strategic interests of the region’s countries and overriding their perspectives on international and regional relations, confirms that the Islamic regime has not changed and will not change. All its recent “developments” in bridging gaps and improving relations with neighbors are merely attempts to neutralize these countries while it disregards their views and national interests in the fraught game that it is playing with the US and Israel.
Overall, Khamenei’s speech introduced nothing new on a strategic level. It was an ideological, mobilizing speech in which he justified the missile attack by Iran against Israel, deeming it “completely legal and legitimate,” while repeating slogans about Israel’s demise and other familiar rhetoric. IRAN’S SUPREME Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends Friday prayers and a memorial ceremony for Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran earlier this month. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)
He glaringly failed to acknowledge the successive intelligence breaches that led to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders. This is unsurprising, as the Iranian regime has not acknowledged security failures in major incidents that have taken place in recent months, such as the killings of Ibrahim Raisi and the mercenary Ismail Haniyeh, and before them, prominent scientists and leaders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Even referencing these security disasters is a condemnation of IRCG, which directly oversees all the plans and actions of Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Khamenei’s speech smelled of desperation
Khamenei’s speech was primarily – in my view – a desperate attempt to position himself as the leader of the Islamic world. Recently, the political discourse of all Iranian officials has been focusing on this approach. They push narratives about the unity of the Muslim world; the ideal of resistance; and the effort to fill the leadership vacuum that exists in the Arab and Islamic worlds (a vacuum created by many reasons and factors that we are not discussing here).
The Iranian leader also engages in a game of manipulation when he tries to blend the Palestinian and Lebanese people with terrorist groups loyal to the Iranian regime – presenting these groups as representatives of the people. He claims “no one has the right to object to their resistance,” portraying them as fulfilling their duty in defending the people.
This is a transparent maneuver, confusing national issues and seeking to manipulate the emotions of the Palestinian and Lebanese people, placing everyone in a moral dilemma if they attempt to reject the practices of terror militias that drag them into bloody conflicts – as evident in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya.
Khamenei’s pitiful attempt to present himself as the leader of Muslims is also evident in his speech when he stressed that the enemies of the Islamic world are the enemies of Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen, and that “if Muslims cooperate, divine glory will support them,” explaining that guardianship means interconnection and stability among Muslims. This is clearly a cheap bid to exploit events to gain popularity in the Islamic world and to transform the ongoing conflict between Iran with its terrorist militia proxies and Israel into a global religious strife. Khamenei notably focused in his speech on the Islamic world, advising the people to “open their eyes well and raise awareness.”
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Obviously, Iran and its terror proxies operate with their own calculations of victory and defeat, which differ from the calculations of military strategists regarding confrontations and conflicts. For instance, mere survival, whether for the terrorist militia or its leaders, remains a symbol of defiance and victory, regardless of the heavy human and material losses.
However, applying these calculations to the current state of these militias does not suggest any real victory.
NASRALLAH, IRAN’S key figure in the Middle East, has been assassinated along with most of Hezbollah’s terrorist leaders. The group also suffered a severe blow due to a massive intelligence breach resulting in the elimination of over 3,000 of its members via the simultaneous detonation of pager devices in an operation that exposed the weakness of the group’s security apparatus.
Khamenei’s audacious attempt to mobilize Islamic public opinion behind Iran’s goals is a clear ploy to bolster his regime’s negotiating position and try to embarrass Arab and Islamic governments in front of their people – or at least spark heated debates on social media platforms regarding support or opposition to the missile attacks Iran carried out against Israel.
Such attempts, however, have little chance of success for one simple reason: Iran itself is so exposed that it is hard to persuade even a simpleton that it is fighting to start revolutions and liberate Palestine or Jerusalem.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.